Jaguars vs Titans odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, top predictions from advanced model on 14-3 roll
With six teams in the AFC Playoff picture between 5-7 and 7-5 all vying for what could be one Wild Card spot, the Tennessee Titans can’t afford a letdown on Thursday Night Football against the division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars. The Titans are at 6-6, so a loss to the 4-8 Jaguars would be devastating to their chances. The hometown Titans are four-point favorites for the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff, up from an open of 3.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 37.5 in the latest Titans vs. Jaguars odds, the lowest on the Week 14 NFL schedule. With two top-10 defenses going at it, you’ll want to check out the top Titans vs. Jaguars picks and predictions from SportsLine’s Projection Model before making any of your own.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 14 on a blistering 14-3 run. For the season, it is now 28-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 76-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 129-61 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com.
Now the model has dialed in on Jaguars vs. Titans. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it’s also generated a strong point-spread pick that’s hitting well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that Tennessee’s strength has been its defense. Allowing just over 20 points per game and posting 29 sacks, the Titans have managed to stay close in nearly every game thanks to a formidable front seven that can attack. In the teams’ first meeting back in September, a 9-6 Tennessee victory, the Titans held Jacksonville to two field goals, 12 first downs and 232 total yards of offense. Tennessee also stymied Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles, holding him to 155 passing yards while sacking him three times.
Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is healthy and playing his best football of the season. On Sunday, Mariota threw for 282 yards and rushed for another 43 — in critical junctures of the game — to will the Titans to victory. Tennessee will also rely on the one-two backfield punch of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis to grind out first downs in what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
But just because the Titans are coming off a season-saving win doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Thursday Night Football spread.
The model also knows that one big advantage for the Jaguars will be the pressure they routinely get on the quarterback courtesy of defensive ends Calais Campbelland Yannick Ngakoue. Both have seven sacks this season, but their ability to impact the game goes beyond disrupting the passing game.
Campbell has registered 15 quarterback hits this season and Ngakoue has an incredible 25. The Titans have given up 42 sacks this season, so if Campbell and Ngakoue can live in the Titans’ backfield, it could be a long day for Mariota. The Jaguars are third in the NFL in total defense at 315.6 yards allowed per game. They shut Colts quarterback Andrew Luck out of the end zone last week and sacked him three times.
Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to action and will be well-rested after serving a one-game suspension for throwing haymakers against the Bills. Despite only suiting up for five games this season, he is tied with Yeldon for the team lead in touchdowns with five.
Who wins Jaguars vs. Titans? And which side covers in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over on Thursday Night Football, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.